Assessing the ecological suitability of the Irish landscape for the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx)

Restoration of natural processes via the reintroduction of locally extinct species is a key component of the rewilding process. In Ireland, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), an indigenous medium-sized felid, is no longer extant, possibly due to increasing human pressures over the course of the Holocene. With increased afforestation levels and subsequent range expansion in the populations of both native and exotic deer species, the potential for the Irish landscape to support a viable lynx population was examined. Four sequential steps were undertaken: (1) identifying the extent of available habitat using GIS software, (2) assessing the connectivity between habitat patches using a least-cost path analysis, (3) estimating the number of lynx which could be supported by the available habitat, and (4) investigating the long-term viability of a reintroduced lynx population under differing scenarios, using Rangeshifter software. Overall, a total of 4,488 km² of suitable habitat was identified, spread between 4 habitat networks and 3 isolated patches. Under current habitat availability, a lynx population was found to have a low chance of persistence after 100 years under varying densities, with some improvement seen when habitat availability was increased. For Ireland to be capable of sustaining a viable population of lynx, there must be enhancement of both habitat availability and connectivity, through coherent landscape-scale woodland restoration. The results also highlight the importance of an evidence-based approach in species reintroduction planning, allowing for the likelihood of success to be rapidly quantified.