Assessment of the Impact of the Road Freight Modal Shift to Rail Freight on Ireland's Carbon Emissions

This paper investigates the decarbonization of freight transport in Ireland by employing ARIMA time series modeling to forecast road and rail freight demands through 2030. Utilizing annual cargo turnover data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO, 2024), the study explores various scenarios of modal shift policies, ranging from no shift to significant transfers of freight from road to rail. The analysis reveals that without any modal shift interventions, emissions from freight transport in Ireland, are expected to rise by 5.44% by 2030 compared to 2022 levels. However, the implementation of moderate to ambitious modal shift policies can lead to substantial emissions reductions, with a 10% shift resulting in approximately a 2.8% decrease in total emissions, and a 30% shift yielding a remarkable 19.28% reduction. The research highlights the critical role of targeted modal shift transport policies in achieving decarbonization goals amid Ireland's challenges in meeting emission targets. The paper categorizes strategic measures into moderate, intermediate, and ambitious policies, emphasizing the need for foundational actions, significant infrastructure investments, and comprehensive changes to facilitate the transition from road to rail. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, offering guidance for developing sustainable freight transport strategies that can mitigate emissions and conserve energy. The recommendations have broader implications, serving as a framework for regions facing similar challenges in carbon reduction and transport efficiency. By prioritizing modal shift policies and investing in the necessary infrastructure, Ireland can make significant progress toward a more sustainable future in freight transport.