Examining demand and substitutability across terminals in a gateway port network: A discrete choice model of Irish ports

In many regions, capacity for port services is provided by a network of gateway ports. These gateway ports act as entry and exist nodes for a region to the wider freight transport system. Understanding existing drivers of port choice and the substitutability between nodes within the network is important for informing policy decisions regarding the allocation of often scarce resources in developing capacity. The objective of this research is therefore to examine demand for and substitutability between nodes in the Irish port network. A random utility maximisation framework is employed to examine the probability of routing a vessel, conditional on having chosen to run a service, through a given node based on identifiable port attributes. Using the output of the modelling exercise, several policy scenarios are simulated to examine substitutability across the port network. The model of port demand is created using a full sample of port calls for the year 2016 using automatic identification system (AIS) data sourced from Marine Traffic.