TY - JOUR
T1 - On redshift evolution and negative dark energy density in Pantheon + Supernovae
AU - Malekjani, M.
AU - Mc Conville, R.
AU - Ó Colgáin, E.
AU - Pourojaghi, S.
AU - Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/3
Y1 - 2024/3
N2 - Within the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker (FLRW) framework, the Hubble constant H0 is an integration constant. Thus, consistency of the model demands observational constancy of H0. We demonstrate redshift evolution of best fit ΛCDM parameters (H0,Ωm) in Pantheon+ supernove (SNe). Redshift evolution of best fit cosmological parameters is a prerequisite to finding a statistically significant evolution as well as identifying alternative models that are competitive with ΛCDM in a Bayesian model comparison. To assess statistical significance, we employ three different methods: (i) Bayesian model comparison, (ii) mock simulations and (iii) profile distributions. The first shows a marginal preference for the vanilla ΛCDM model over an ad hoc model with 3 additional parameters and an unphysical jump in cosmological parameters at z=1. From mock simulations, we estimate the statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters and negative dark energy density (Ωm>1) to be in the 1-2σ range, depending on the criteria employed. Importantly, in direct comparison to the same analysis with the earlier Pantheon sample we find that statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters has increased, as expected for a physical effect. Our profile distribution analysis demonstrates a shift in (H0,Ωm) in excess of 95% confidence level for SNe with redshifts z>1 and also shows that a degeneracy in MCMC posteriors is not equivalent to a curve of constant χ2. Our findings can be interpreted as a statistical fluctuation or unexplored systematics in Pantheon+ or ΛCDM model breakdown. The first two possibilities are disfavoured by similar trends in independent probes.
AB - Within the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker (FLRW) framework, the Hubble constant H0 is an integration constant. Thus, consistency of the model demands observational constancy of H0. We demonstrate redshift evolution of best fit ΛCDM parameters (H0,Ωm) in Pantheon+ supernove (SNe). Redshift evolution of best fit cosmological parameters is a prerequisite to finding a statistically significant evolution as well as identifying alternative models that are competitive with ΛCDM in a Bayesian model comparison. To assess statistical significance, we employ three different methods: (i) Bayesian model comparison, (ii) mock simulations and (iii) profile distributions. The first shows a marginal preference for the vanilla ΛCDM model over an ad hoc model with 3 additional parameters and an unphysical jump in cosmological parameters at z=1. From mock simulations, we estimate the statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters and negative dark energy density (Ωm>1) to be in the 1-2σ range, depending on the criteria employed. Importantly, in direct comparison to the same analysis with the earlier Pantheon sample we find that statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters has increased, as expected for a physical effect. Our profile distribution analysis demonstrates a shift in (H0,Ωm) in excess of 95% confidence level for SNe with redshifts z>1 and also shows that a degeneracy in MCMC posteriors is not equivalent to a curve of constant χ2. Our findings can be interpreted as a statistical fluctuation or unexplored systematics in Pantheon+ or ΛCDM model breakdown. The first two possibilities are disfavoured by similar trends in independent probes.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85188583670&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1140/epjc/s10052-024-12667-z
DO - 10.1140/epjc/s10052-024-12667-z
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85188583670
SN - 1434-6044
VL - 84
JO - European Physical Journal C
JF - European Physical Journal C
IS - 3
M1 - 317
ER -