Projection of Future Hydropower Generation in Samanalawewa Power Plant, Sri Lanka

Bhabishya Khaniya, Chamaka Karunanayake, Miyuru B. Gunathilake, Upaka Rathnayake

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The projection of future hydropower generation is extremely important for the sustainable development of any country, which utilizes hydropower as one of the major sources of energy to plan the country's power management system. Hydropower generation, on the other hand, is mostly dependent on the weather and climate dynamics of the local area. In this paper, we aim to study the impact of climate change on the future performance of the Samanalawewa hydropower plant located in Sri Lanka using artificial neural networks (ANNs). ANNs are one of the most effective machine learning tools for examining nonlinear relationships between the variables to understand complex hydrological processes. Validated ANN model is used to project the future power generation from 2020 to 2050 using future projected rainfall data extracted from regional climate models. Results showcased that the forecasted hydropower would increase in significant percentages (7.29% and 10.22%) for the two tested climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Therefore, this analysis showcases the capability of ANN in projecting nonstationary patterns of power generation from hydropower plants. The projected results are of utmost importance to stakeholders to manage reservoir operations while maximizing the productivity of the impounded water and thus, maximizing economic growth as well as social benefits.

Original languageEnglish
Article number8862067
JournalMathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Externally publishedYes

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