TY - JOUR
T1 - Projection of Future Hydropower Generation in Samanalawewa Power Plant, Sri Lanka
AU - Khaniya, Bhabishya
AU - Karunanayake, Chamaka
AU - Gunathilake, Miyuru B.
AU - Rathnayake, Upaka
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Bhabishya Khaniya et al.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - The projection of future hydropower generation is extremely important for the sustainable development of any country, which utilizes hydropower as one of the major sources of energy to plan the country's power management system. Hydropower generation, on the other hand, is mostly dependent on the weather and climate dynamics of the local area. In this paper, we aim to study the impact of climate change on the future performance of the Samanalawewa hydropower plant located in Sri Lanka using artificial neural networks (ANNs). ANNs are one of the most effective machine learning tools for examining nonlinear relationships between the variables to understand complex hydrological processes. Validated ANN model is used to project the future power generation from 2020 to 2050 using future projected rainfall data extracted from regional climate models. Results showcased that the forecasted hydropower would increase in significant percentages (7.29% and 10.22%) for the two tested climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Therefore, this analysis showcases the capability of ANN in projecting nonstationary patterns of power generation from hydropower plants. The projected results are of utmost importance to stakeholders to manage reservoir operations while maximizing the productivity of the impounded water and thus, maximizing economic growth as well as social benefits.
AB - The projection of future hydropower generation is extremely important for the sustainable development of any country, which utilizes hydropower as one of the major sources of energy to plan the country's power management system. Hydropower generation, on the other hand, is mostly dependent on the weather and climate dynamics of the local area. In this paper, we aim to study the impact of climate change on the future performance of the Samanalawewa hydropower plant located in Sri Lanka using artificial neural networks (ANNs). ANNs are one of the most effective machine learning tools for examining nonlinear relationships between the variables to understand complex hydrological processes. Validated ANN model is used to project the future power generation from 2020 to 2050 using future projected rainfall data extracted from regional climate models. Results showcased that the forecasted hydropower would increase in significant percentages (7.29% and 10.22%) for the two tested climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Therefore, this analysis showcases the capability of ANN in projecting nonstationary patterns of power generation from hydropower plants. The projected results are of utmost importance to stakeholders to manage reservoir operations while maximizing the productivity of the impounded water and thus, maximizing economic growth as well as social benefits.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85094865241&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1155/2020/8862067
DO - 10.1155/2020/8862067
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85094865241
SN - 1024-123X
VL - 2020
JO - Mathematical Problems in Engineering
JF - Mathematical Problems in Engineering
M1 - 8862067
ER -