Response of cetaceans to fluctuations of pelagic fish stocks and environmental conditions within the Celtic Sea ecosystem

Inshore waters off the south coast of Ireland are an important foraging area for a range of cetacean species. Some of the main prey species of these cetaceans are herring and sprat, two economically valuable fish species in the region. The Celtic Sea herring stock suffered a marked decline in 2013. The present study aimed to investigate potential changes in the ecosystem associated to the herring decline and to determine the potential impacts on predators. Here we analyzed sightings information of common dolphins, fin, minke, humpback and unidentified whale species, acoustic data of herring and sprat, and a range of environmental variables mainly derived from satellites. Firstly, we characterized spatio-temporal patterns in the relative abundance of predator and prey species, and environmental variables, and compared periods before and since the herring decline. Since the 2013 herring decline, (i) the herring stock has mainly concentrated in south-eastern coastal waters and southern offshore Irish waters, (ii) sprat density has increased, (iii) chlorophyll concentration has decreased, (iv) sea surface temperature has risen, and (v) the euphotic layer has extended deeper. Secondly, we modelled the effects of prey density and environmental conditions on the relative abundance and distribution of cetaceans, as well as the effects of environmental conditions on prey density, between 2005-2018 by applying Hurdle Generalized Additive Models. The models for herring and sprat support the idea that these species have different environmental relationships, for example herring tended to be found in shallower waters than was the case for sprat. The presence and relative abundance of common dolphins were significantly affected by both environmental conditions and herring density, whereas whale species presence and relative abundance were found to be correlated with sea surface temperature and prey density. The model results suggest differences in prey choice among whale species. Understanding the dynamic relationships between predators, prey and the environment is important to inform an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management.