Temporal trends in stock origin and abundance of juvenile herring (Clupea harengus) in the Irish Sea

Celtic Sea herring (Clupea harengus) larvae partly disperse into the Irish Sea, where they mix with the resident stock during their first year of life. This affects the reliability of the use of acoustic estimates of juvenile abundance on the Irish Sea nursery grounds as a recruitment index for use in stock predictions. Otolith microstructure analysis can be used to distinguish between autumn-spawned and winter-spawned individuals. Because winter spawners do not occur in the Irish Sea, this component can be assigned to Celtic Sea immigrants. We used this method to estimate the proportion of winter-spawned individuals in samples of age-1 herring from the western Irish Sea over a 10-year period (1993-2003), and subtracted a corresponding proportion from the acoustic age-1 abundance estimates. The adjusted index for autumn-spawned (supposedly Irish Sea) juveniles was significantly correlated with the abundance of age-3 fish from the same year class in commercial catches and in the acoustic surveys (p < 0.05 and <0.01, respectively), whereas the correlations for unadjusted indices were not significant. These findings are discussed in relation to the monitoring and assessment of herring in the two areas.