Use of intensity analysis and transfer matrix to characterize land conversion in the Aral Sea Basin under changing climate

An effective approach to identifying the size and intensity of land transitions is vital for land use and management decisions. This study used a transfer matrix and intensity analysis to quantify the land conversion from 1995 to 2015 in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB). The analysis is based on annual land cover data from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative and normalized density vegetation index data from Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). According to our analysis, 42.39% of the total land area of ASB is covered by bareland (762,300 km²). Due to the most extensive transition intensity from water to bareland, it expanded gradually by 6,100 km² during the 1995 to 2015 period. Furthermore, we found expanding cropland and urban area, where the urban area continuously expanded from 12,000 to 61,700 km² during 20-year periods. In contrast, forest and water areas decreased continuously, where the forest (70,900 km²) and water area 67,900 km²) decreased by 0.12% and 3.77%, respectively. Interestingly, we found that the loss of forests contributed to the cropland and urban areas’s gain while water bodies were transformed into barren and shrubland areas and, further, developed into deserts. This study enriches the methodology of intensity analysis and provides a scientific reference for the adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development and management of land resources in ASB.